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Performance Overview




Portman Trust AG's better than average profitability is the result of our online risk managed predictive picks software for global stocks or other markets.  

Welcome to the Portman Trust AG (PMT) web site. PMT is a Swiss joint-stock Co. founded in 1986 by the innovative quantitative research analyst Prof. Hari Sharma. a former architect at Harvard turned Wall Street investment Banker. He is a highly experienced former chief analyst and strategist for (ADI)-the Abu Dhabi Sovereign Wealth Fund for trading the US Commodity Futures and a Precious & Non-Ferrous metals multibillion dollars Hedge Fund.  Prof. Sharma passed his CBOT proficiency examination in 1978 to become a CTA, after which he was further trained by Merrill Lynch in London. His job at ADIA, was a real challenge at a time when computers and internet did not exist. He was required to train, devise research and implement the trading by mostly using the Technical Analysis developed on the chart papers and in compliance with the Islamic laws as applied by the National Bank of Abu Dhabi. Please refer to for an interview of Mr. Hari Sharma in STOCKS magagine Zürich: http://connect.inwent.org/fileadmin/dokumente/Themen/tdm0811/Leadership_Stockx_interview_sharma.pdf
   
  

PMT Concept: No matter how good or bad s the US economy, this online back tested and in real time with real money perfected concept is an ideal win-win solution in both the rising or the falling prices of the selected markets. PMT performs better when it buys stocks or any other market at their lowest lows, as defined by PMT's online trades selection software. When markets are falling, PMT is not generally lose any money but  it waits for the fall at their lowest price, The model software indicators nearly confirm when the prices have bottomed out so as to Buy Long or Buy Call options on a selected market, as indicated by the software,  after the lowest price falls in the current periods, or topped up in the exhausting highest highs in rising prices so as to liquidate the previous Buys or Buy the Puts. The model software is unique in defining the probable timing of the lowest lows and the highest highs for the current periods. This gives Prof. Sharma an edge over other analysts. The most beneficial effect of the PMT model's online analysis is the timely Hedging probabilities and the use of Options to Buy Calls or Puts. It's a significant advantage for investors seeking to High Frequency Trading , with the help of PMT technique.

 

An interview by CASH TV Stuttgart, Germany.
The Problem: Fundamentals are conflicting amongst the "experts" for both sides of the market. The technical analysis used by some requires to use "stop loss" below or above the expected price moves to protect against adverse moves. The technical analysis is just another hit and trial tool with a hope to be right. So many opinions by the brokers, banks, analysis and media psychics are all confusing to the investors. All this is part of the problem and not the solution. Those who win by chance, are labelled as the lucky ones. The only ones who always benefit from this chios are the brokers,the  banks and the exchanges. There are always two possibilities for the market, to either go up or to go down. Several consequent losses, either way, discourages investors to continue such probes and may miss out to catch major moves, when the time was right. Any news or data effect may only last a few hours or days.   

Money was lost in 2007-2008 because of frauds, cheating in the US Markets and  various other  factors. Most traders lost money, no matter how much experienced. PMT software only prompted very few Buy-Signals (see trades selection). Traders suffered massive losses but the brokers made profits due to confusing and complex news and data released every so often . Also, false breakouts, either way, created frustrations.

The Solution: Prof. Sharma has, therefore, developed a unique innovative R&D-based online quantitative algrometric model software, which prompt "Buy Low and Sell High" -Signals with nearly 85% profitable trades in the global blue chip stocks, indices, commodity futures, Forex and Precious metals. The software uses the unique market selection process as explained later on. It acts as the key factor to select probable profit markets. The model is based upon Sharmas trading experience of the model since 1996. The model also guides when to exit out of the profits so generated, at the appropriate timing, essential to accumulating yearly profits. The model is based on "Buy Low & Sell High" concept and is suitable for High Frequency, Options, Futures, Forex, Global Stocks on both Short as well as the Long Term trading.
 

PMT unique system works as 123. First Buy expected to be profitable. If the markets fall to a next second low level, then Buy the same market the 2nd time and then expect making double profits. Rarely, in a crash scenario, the market fall still continues further and after the crash stops , as defined by the model software, the 3rd  time Buy is triggered at the the defined lowest price and for the last time. Markets usually bounce up sharply to catch the profit three times. Profits are accumulated as the time passes, and the risks are reduced to nearly zero after the capital is doubled in a year or two. It’s the best methodology to derive the market profitability with confidence in trading, knowledge and experience to benefit intelligently from the market corrections as the opportunities for profits.

 

 
Best Portfolio Mix: PMT has found out that the best performing portfolio consists of the US and German stock Indices, four metals and four major currencies (see Select Futures Portfolio) combined with US Treasury Bonds, T. Bills, and crude oil. It may be further comprized of about 25 high value USA blue chip stocks. PMT lwas founded with the sole objective of making investor profits first and then sharing ig the profitability. Our  performance is risk-managed, combined with knowledge and on-hand experience of systematic trading the chosen markets. PMT's strategy is to use the innovative, real-time, online market analysis propriatory software. Our isk-reward based trades selection on the long side of the markets have proven to be nost profitable.
          Real Performance for a Balanced Portfolio in 2009
Current Performance for a Real Balanced Portfolio

 

 Risk Management: There are two tiers of risk management in normal markets. The 1st. tier is that only first and second matured Buy-Signals are executed at any given time without the use of Stops. But in a crash scnerio of about 10% corrections or more, the third Buy-Signal will be executed and awaited for up swings in prices profitability credits. These Buy-Signals are prompted and matured in risk managed levels. The 2nd. tier is that any trades made in the leveraged markets are opened for the first time at the first Buy-Signal  at about 40% of the net equity values. Any profit on any liquidated trades  bexome credits to the account  and any open trades are carried forward, until liquidated. urther trades are made at the second Buy-Signal at another 15% of the remaining equity value. Thus a total of about 55% of trades are open at maximum open margins at any given time and leaving about 49% uninvested cash at any given time.  Prof. Sharma supervises, implements and executes the defined trading rules.
Performance Basis: A unique feature of the PMT model is the predetermined Risk-Reward (R/R) ratios, which are integrated and optimized in the model to control and qualify the risks. The sequence of Buy-Signals, which is followed either partly or entirely – depending on the market situation – offers a number of aspects for a better understanding of the model. Any market entry levels will not be entered into the selected markets until prices stop falling any further, as will be indicated by the model – they must wait until the falls are over for the then-current period. PMT only trades the model prompted Buy-Signals at the prices and dates indicated. The different Buy-Signals which represent specific risk-reward ratio levels (see below) give an insight into the risk management by outlining the following three aspects:
  • Probability of the market to go further down
  • Probability of the market to go up
  • Profit factor: expected profit in USDs for a loss of one USD

Buy signals
Risk - Reward ratio
Probability of the markets
Profit factor
 
 
to go further down
to go further up
 
1st  Buy-Signal 1:8  12.5% 87.5% 8 **
2nd Buy-Signal 1:11   9.1% 90.9% 11        
3rd  Buy-Signal 1:14   7.1% 92.0% 14        
** USD 8.00 profit per USD 1.00 loss

Charitable trusts, Endowments or Pension Funds are given a discount of 5% (Special Agreement) per year, on Profit Incentive Fees from the quarterly high water mark profits. The brokerage commissions charged to the investor accounts are much lower than Swiss banks charge to their clients. Our trades are not so frequent as with the direct investor accounts with brokers or banks, as we only trade the PMT model software prompted infrequent Buy-Signals.